Will Professional Sports Be Dead By 2012?

I highly doubt it.  I do, however, think that the four major United States professional sports leagues will probably be somewhat scaled down from what they are now.  Let's examine what might happen in the next few years for the National Football League, Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and the National Hockey League.  

The US economy is in the tank.  At first glance, this doesn't really seem to effect professional sports organizations.  For example, in sports news today, the Arizona Cardinals offered a contract to their quarterback for more than $10 million.  It's hard, when just reading headlines, to think that anyone throwing around $10 mil is struggling in this economy.  But, the economy's drop has a far reaching effect on pro teams.  It's quite a complicated situation to delve into and some of it is way over my head, but, I'll just point out the obvious issues.  Fans will stop attending as many games.  The same fans who regularly attend games are the ones who are being most effected by this economic drop off.  It was hard enough to take a family of four to a ball game before people started to prepare for the worst.  Less people in the seats means less money for the organizations.  You might say that losing people in the stands would hurt but, it wouldn't be a death blow because most of these leagues make huge sums of money from their television contracts.  This is true.  But, remember what got these contracts in the first place...fans showing up at games.  If league wide attendance is down the next contracts might not be as lucrative for the leagues.  Even if attendance doesn't dramatically drop, the networks are businesses too.  They have to be smart about their money in these times.  If they cannot charge as much for advertising because other companies are becoming more frugal with their dollars then the networks won't offer as much to the leagues for the rights to broadcast games.  Thus decreasing the revenue for each pro league.  Ok, we've got that out of the way.  On to the individual sports.

Let's start with the NHL.  Of the four major sports we are discussing, it is the least popular professional sports league.  The reason for that is they cancelled an entire season (2004-05) over a labor dispute.  So, it's taken them quite a while to get back to where they were.  They also show the majority of their games on Versus.  What is Versus, you ask?  A cable channel owned by Comcast that not many people go to in order to watch sports.  The NHL kind of buried itself at a time that it needed to get as much publicity for it's young stars as possible.  The collective bargaining agreement  between the NHL and the NHLPA (player's association) ends after the 2010-11 season.  They cannot afford another cancelled season so, look for either the NHLPA to exercise their option to extend the agreement or a new deal to be reached beforehand.  Of the four sports, this one will have the least trouble reaching a new agreement.  But, getting this agreement will have the least impact on the sport's popularity compared to the others.  

Now every one's favorite past time, Major League Baseball.  Aside from the economic issues mentioned above, the MLB has been marred by scandal the past few years.  The topic of steroids in the game is a huge issue right now.  Major League Baseball has a publicity nightmare on it's hands and how it handles the situation is going to go a long way toward shaping it's future.  If the situation is mishandled, not only could they lose fans from the economic crisis, but, they could lose them from their own mistakes.  That would be a tough hit to take.  The MLB's collective bargaining agreement is up in December of 2011.  A big hurdle for the next agreement is going to be the testing of players for performance enhancing substances.  If the league loses fans like I think they're going to, any type of labor stoppage is going to hurt big time.  Their television contracts run out in 2013.  A loss of attendance combined with any work stoppage would drastically shrink revenue from television contracts.  The MLB is tangled in the mess that they've created for themselves.  I find it hard to believe that they will move up in popularity by their own doing.

I thought the NBA was sitting pretty.  They are growing in popularity.  They have a the next generation of superstars coming into their prime.  People are spending a lot of time talking about important free agents two seasons from now.  So, besides the potential attendance drop, what's the problem?  This.  I know that one guy, David Falk, saying something to help promote his book isn't proof that it's going to happen.   However, if it did...we've seen what happens if a league shuts down for one season. But, what about for two years?  Just as the NBA was asserting itself as a dominant sport again, it would all go away.  Fortunately, a two year work stoppage is highly unlikely.  Falk does make a good point about how the players should concede some things now for a greater return later.  The NBA's collective bargaining agreement expires in 2010-11.  If they can manage to make it through the tough economic times and renegotiate a new agreement without a work stoppage...we may be talking about the most popular pro sports league in the US.

Last but definitely not least, the NFL.  The most popular professional sport in the US.  The NFL is getting to the point of almost wearing out it's welcome in the top spot.  There are too many whiny players dominating the news these days.  On top of that there are way too many players running into legal troubles.  I'm not talking about a few reserve players.  We're talking about starters.  Plaxico Buress and Marshawn Lynch, I'm talking about you...just to name a couple.  These things are starting to get on fan's nerves, especially when you can see the compelling young superstars of the NBA on another channel.  This alone will not knock the NFL from it's perch atop the popularity poles.  But, this will.  Scroll down to the third reader submitted question.  John Clayton, the Professor, says that there is a 50% chance that a lockout happens in 2011.  Fifty percent!  Something like this gives the old NFL a giant shove off it's top spot and, depending on how MLB handles itself over the next few months, it may end up third in popularity.

The bottom line with all of this is that the professional sports world is headed for some interesting times.  The economic downturn that the US has taken will have a huge effect on the pro leagues.  Add that to the fact that all of their collective bargaining agreements are up with a few seasons and you have the makings of potential disasters.  The leagues are going to have to adapt wisely.  I think that this is eventually going to be healthy for all of these leagues.  There is too much money involved for everyone, players and owners, to stupidly let their leagues crash and burn.  The leagues will make or be forced to make smart decisions that will lead to a better product for the fans.